Guests Phil Orlando, Steven Cook, and Troy Gayeski discuss the broadening equity rally, potential oil price increases amid geopolitical uncertainty, and the impact of Fed rate cuts on the yield curve. Steven Cook highlights Iran's potential actions in the Middle East, while Troy Gayeski warns of the yield curve returning to 5% without rate cuts.
Equity rally expected to broaden, oil prices to rise amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Iran may pressure US regarding Israel, potential for violence in the Middle East region.
Deep dives
Economic Indicators Suggest Shift in Economic Growth and Inflation Concerns
Recent economic data indicating strengthening economy with rising ISM levels and positive LEI data hint at a shift towards stronger economic growth. Despite this, concerns over inflation persist as highlighted by Fed's price forecasts, potentially leading to fewer rate cuts than previously expected.
Stock Market Analysis and Potential Corrections in Equities
With S&P 500 up significantly, there are indications that stocks may be overvalued. Expectations of a rolling correction in the market, with focus shifting from large-cap stocks to small-cap and international categories like biotechnology. Higher rates pose challenges for small-cap firms, but potential opportunities lie in sectors like biotech with strong pipelines and favorable valuations.
Impact of Oil Prices and Energy Market Outlook
Rapid increase in oil prices driven by geopolitical risks and limited levers for price control. Forecasts suggest potential further rise in oil prices, impacting markets significantly. Energy sector, particularly domestic large-cap value side, is seen favorably amidst escalating oil prices, with predictions of potential further upward movement in oil prices towards $100 per barrel.
-Phil Orlando, Chief Equity Strategist & Head of Client Portfolio Management, Federated Hermes -Steven Cook, Middle Eastern Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations -Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist, FS Investments
Phil Orlando of Federated Hermes says the equity rally will broaden out and expects oil prices to climb higher through the year amid geopolitical uncertainty. Steven Cook, Middle Eastern Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says Iran will likely pressure the US to bring Israel to heel or raise a 'storm of violence in the region'. Troy Gayeski of FS Investments says the back-end of the yield curve could return to 5% levels if the Fed doesn't cut rates.