Wall Street Breakfast Will Fed's Powell make it to jobs day?
Sep 28, 2025
September payrolls are expected to show a modest rise, but a potential government shutdown could complicate things. Trump’s cartoon fuels speculation about his intentions toward Powell, adding political drama to the Fed’s decisions. Meanwhile, EA’s stock surges amid buyout rumors, while GameStop faces a significant coverage drop. With key earnings reports on the horizon, including Nike, market watchers are keeping a close eye on economic signals and the Fed's next moves.
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Labor Market Losing Altitude
- September payrolls are expected to slow sharply, with economists forecasting just 39,000 new jobs.
- The recent three-month average of 29,000 and rising unemployment suggest the labor market is losing altitude.
Powell Faces Inflation vs. Jobs Tradeoff
- The Fed cut rates last meeting because the jobs market weakened, but Powell resisted deeper easing as inflation remains above target.
- Core PCE at 2.9% and rising longer-term yields reduced expectations for two rate cuts this year.
Risks To Fed Independence
- President Trump signaled possible removal of Fed leadership, reposting a cartoon of himself firing Powell.
- That threat coincides with an unprecedented push to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and raises alarms over central bank independence.