EP 23: Boom and Bust (with William Quinn & John D. Turner)
Feb 5, 2024
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Authors William Quinn & John D. Turner join the podcast to discuss financial bubbles, including the role of technology, government policies, and market speculation. They explore historical bubbles and the emergence of bubbles in various industries like cryptocurrency and electric vehicles.
The bubble triangle offers a framework for understanding the factors that contribute to the development and collapse of financial bubbles.
Marketability of assets plays a significant role in the formation and expansion of financial bubbles, but excessive marketability can also be risky.
Deep dives
The Bubble Triangle: A New Way to Understand Financial Bubbles
The podcast discusses a new concept called the bubble triangle, which offers a different perspective on financial bubbles. The bubble triangle consists of three components: fuel, oxygen, and heat. The fuel represents money and credit, the oxygen refers to the marketability of assets, and the heat signifies speculation. These components interact and contribute to the formation and growth of bubbles. Additionally, the spark that ignites a bubble can be attributed to new technology or government policy. The bubble triangle provides a framework for understanding the factors that contribute to the development of financial bubbles and their eventual collapse.
The Role of Marketability in Bubbles
Marketability plays a significant role in the formation and expansion of financial bubbles. Advances in technology and changes in market regulations have led to increased marketability of assets, making it easier for investors to buy and sell these assets. The ease of trading can contribute to speculative behavior, as novice investors are drawn into the market. However, excessive marketability can also be risky, as it can encourage excessive trading and speculative activity. It is important to recognize the impact of marketability in the formation and perpetuation of financial bubbles.
Government Policy and Bubbles
Government policy can serve as a spark that triggers financial bubbles. In the case of the housing bubble in the early 2000s, governments in certain countries, such as the US, Ireland, Spain, and the UK, promoted lending to lower-income individuals to stimulate the housing market. These policies aimed to increase homeownership and stimulate the economy. However, the excessive lending and the focus on social housing created an unsustainable bubble in the housing market, particularly in the lower tiers of the market. Government policies and their impact on market conditions can contribute to the formation and growth of financial bubbles.
The Role of Technology in Bubbles
Technological innovation can have a significant influence on financial bubbles. New technologies often create opportunities for companies to generate extraordinary profits, leading to increased investor interest and potential overvaluation of stocks. Additionally, the narrative of a new technological paradigm can rationalize higher stock prices, as investors believe that traditional valuation metrics are irrelevant in the face of new technology. However, the inability to relate earnings to valuations can create uncertainty and speculative behavior, contributing to the formation of bubbles. Technological advancements and their impact on market dynamics should be considered when examining the formation and growth of financial bubbles.
In an appetising taster of our Weekend of Mistakes at Hay Castle on 1-3 March 2024, Russell Napier is joined by the authors of Boom And Bust, William Quinn & John D. Turner, to discuss their fascinating global history of financial bubbles.
William will also be joining Russell at Hay Castle for a session called The Madness Of Crowds.
If you're accessing this podcast before 1 March 2024, there may still be tickets left for the Weekend of Mistakes. More info at https://www.haycastletrust.org/p-3525-weekend-of-mistakes-at-hay-castle.aspx
•The Library of Mistakes runs an outstanding course called the Practical History of Financial Markets. To find out more, go to: www.libraryofmistakes.com/course
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