Global Macro Update: Bitcoin Thrives When US Manipulates Dollar
May 30, 2024
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Discussion on US government's manipulation of the dollar affecting asset prices like bitcoin, treasury yields, gold dynamics, and global financial conditions. Exploring the correlation between crude oil exports and dollar strength, Treasury bill issuance on dollar value, and gold as a new currency for oil trading. Advocacy for Bitcoin as a superior asset in a manipulated dollar environment.
US government manipulates dollar to suppress value by increasing liquidity, weakening dollar pressure on US debt.
Bitcoin's outperformance highlights its role as a store of value amidst economic uncertainties and currency manipulation.
Deep dives
US Treasury Yields and Inflation
US treasury yields show a steady increase over the past five years, reflecting the concept of time value of money compensating for inflation. With inflation persistently high, investors demand higher yields. The path of least resistance for treasury yields is upward due to persistent inflation, leading to a potential increase to 5%. The correlation between treasury yields and the dollar remains strong, influenced by factors like inflation and debt overseas.
US Dollar Manipulation and Government Policy
The US government is seen to manipulate the dollar to suppress its value by increasing liquidity, making dollars more abundant. This strategy aims to weaken the dollar, as a stronger dollar puts pressure on US debt and overseas borrowers. A weaker dollar aligns with the government's policy to prevent high treasury yields, which would lead to increased debt servicing costs. The government's focus on a weak dollar is essential for maintaining a favorable fiscal position and managing its debt obligations.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio and Inflation
The US debt-to-GDP ratio, at 122%, presents challenges for the government, indicating unsustainable levels. Higher inflation becomes crucial for reducing this ratio, as inflation drives GDP growth, allowing the ratio to stabilize. Fiscal stimulus during the pandemic triggered a spike in the ratio, emphasizing the interplay between government spending, inflation, and debt sustainability. The need for inflation to address the debt burden highlights the government's reliance on inflation as a tool for managing its financial obligations.
Bitcoin's Performance Amid Economic Trends
Bitcoin's exceptional performance over five years surpassing stocks and gold underscores its strength as a store of value amidst economic uncertainties. As the dollar weakens and asset returns extend beyond nominal levels, Bitcoin emerges as a resilient choice for investors seeking to hedge against inflation and currency manipulation. In a context of global macroeconomic shifts and dollar devaluation, Bitcoin's outperformance of traditional assets positions it as a favorable investment in a dynamic financial landscape.
In this episode, Nik brings us a global macro update focused on the US government's grand manipulation of the dollar. Nik argues that although the dollar index oscillates, the major theme of introducing dollar liquidity/supply to suppress its value continues to drive asset prices, including Treasuries, stocks, gold, and of course, bitcoin. Join us for an in-depth discussion of the US fiscal picture, tax receipts, interest expense, debt-to-GDP, asset returns, and a global monetary reset.
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