School of War Ep 254: Frank Gavin on History and Statecraft
Dec 5, 2025
Frank Gavin, a leading historian and director at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, shares insights on the intricate relationship between history and statecraft. He discusses the vital role of historical thinking in informing policy decisions and critiques common errors such as overconfidence and misuse of history. Gavin dives into Putin's manipulation of historical narratives and offers a checklist for policymakers to rethink assumptions. This thought-provoking conversation emphasizes the messy, nuanced nature of history and its impact on contemporary strategy.
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History vs. Political Science
- Historians and political scientists offer different but complementary ways to understand world politics.
- A blend of historical depth and IR theory yields better judgment for policymaking.
Contingency In History Examples
- Gavins reconstructs Sarajevo and Roosevelt episodes to show contingency in history.
- Small accidents or personnel choices can reshape very large outcomes like world wars or the Cold War.
Learn Historical Reasoning
- Read Neustadt and May to learn practical ways to use history in policy.
- Treat historical reasoning as a craft that policymakers must learn, not an automatic skill.
