Bloomberg Talks Jennifer Lee Talks Markets; Fed
Dec 29, 2025
Jennifer Lee, a Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, shares her insights on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. She discusses cautious optimism for 2026, highlighting key risks such as government shutdowns. Jennifer emphasizes the importance of jobs and inflation data, noting strong retail sales amid declining consumer confidence. She also previews the new Fed chair's strategy for rate cuts and assesses trade uncertainties related to USMCA negotiations. Lastly, she forecasts a gradual dollar weakening, supported by ongoing U.S. growth.
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Strong Q3 Masks Near-Term Uncertainty
- The Q3 4.3% GDP beat was broad-based, driven by consumer non-durables and services.
- Jennifer Lee warns Q3 is rear-view and Q4 data (and revisions) will determine the real momentum.
Focus On Jobs, Inflation, And Revisions
- Watch jobs and inflation data closely as the primary signals for Fed policy.
- Focus on incoming revisions to government data to understand the true economic story.
Consumer Resilient but Confidence Is Slipping
- Consumer spending remains resilient, supported by strong core retail sales.
- But falling consumer confidence driven by weaker job perceptions is a warning sign for future demand.