The Bid 242: 2026 Outlook: Pushing Limits
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Dec 5, 2025 In this engaging discussion, Jean Boivin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, shares insights into the forces shaping market dynamics through 2026. He highlights the significant impact of AI-driven capital expenditure, predicting a staggering $5-8 trillion investment by 2030. Jean warns about the 'diversification mirage,' where seemingly diverse strategies may be overly concentrated. He delves into how companies are leveraging debt to finance ambitious AI projects and discusses emerging opportunities in global markets, including Japan and emerging economies.
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Micro Decisions Drive The Macro
- The AI build-out has become so large that micro-level corporate decisions are creating macroeconomic effects.
- This concentration makes markets driven by a few forces and forces investors to take big, active bets.
Unprecedented AI CapEx Scale
- BlackRock estimates $5–$8 trillion of AI-related CapEx by 2030, the fastest capital build-out ever if realized.
- That scale could justify itself only if AI drives large revenue pools across the economy.
Bubble Framing Misses The Point
- Framing the story as a 'bubble' is unhelpful; both massive spending and massive revenue potential must be reconciled.
- Key conditions: a sustained GDP growth breakout and clarity on which sectors capture AI-driven revenues.