The OPEX Effect A Rally Built on Fragile Ground | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba dive deep into the dynamics shaping the current market regime, with a particular focus on the upcoming June OPEX, dealer positioning, volatility trends, and the surprising resilience of the S&P 500 amid geopolitical stress. They break down how options flows continue to dominate equity price action, why the market remains pinned despite negative news, and what might finally break the calm. With some of the largest options expirations in history on deck, this is a must-watch for anyone following volatility, hedging flows, and macro signals.
💡 Topics Covered:
Why volatility often contracts before OPEX and expands after
The significance of the June 2025 OPEX as potentially the largest ever
Dealer gamma, hedging flows, and what they signal about near-term volatility
Why implied vol is so low despite major geopolitical risk (e.g. Israel-Iran conflict)
The JP Morgan collar trade and its influence on the 5,900 level in the S&P
How zero-DTE options impact market stability and risk signaling
A potential regime shift: AI stocks, “taco trades,” and declining liquidity
What vol metrics like VIX, VVIX, and correlation are really saying
The hidden risk of overconfidence when markets ignore bad news
Breakdown of sector-specific volatility expectations (tech, energy, gold, Bitcoin)