What are retail earnings and CPI telling us about the US consumer?
Nov 17, 2023
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Discussion on declining retail sales and consumer spending in the US, resilient consumers despite spending less frequently. Performance of retail sectors with challenges in housing and autos, positive in restaurants and smaller ticket experiences. Impact of consumer price index on rate decisions. Predictions for Black Friday, increase in consumer spending in apparel, footwear, and electronics.
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Quick takeaways
Big retailers like Walmart and Home Depot are experiencing a slight pullback in discretionary spending, but their earnings remain strong due to clean margins and lower costs.
Sectors tied to big-ticket items like housing and autos are underperforming, while spending on restaurants and smaller ticket experiences is stronger.
Deep dives
Consumer Spending is Starting to Slow Down
The podcast explores how consumers in the US are starting to pull back on spending. While big retailers like Walmart and Home Depot have acknowledged a slight pullback in discretionary spending, earnings of these companies are still good due to clean margins, lower inventory costs, and favorable labor costs. Sectors tied to big-ticket items like housing and autos are performing less well, while restaurants and smaller ticket experiences are seeing stronger spending.
Expectations for Black Friday and Beyond
The podcast discusses the upcoming Black Friday shopping event and expects it to be relatively good, with pent-up demand for apparel, footwear, and smaller ticket electronics. Consumer spending around event-based shopping tends to be strong, indicating a potential boost in sales. Additionally, the podcast mentions a focus on consumer electronics and product trends in that category. Other factors of interest for the next week include the earnings reports of big box retailers, Black Friday trends, and housing data on existing home sales.
As the holiday season approaches and CPI numbers show cooling inflation, what does that mean for US consumer spending? Goldman Sachs' Scott Feiler, a consumer sector specialist in Global Banking & Markets, discusses the outlook for the retail sector.