Coffee House Shots Labour's vibes are all wrong
Nov 11, 2025
Join journalist Michael Simmons, the Economics editor at The Spectator, and political commentator Scarlett Maguire, founder of Merlin Strategy, as they delve into the challenges facing Labour. They discuss the alarming rise in unemployment and potential income tax hikes under Rachel Reeves. Scarlett highlights how Labour's shifting allegiance towards higher earners poses risks, while threats from the Green and Reform parties complicate their voter base. The duo also explores the importance of 'vibes' in political campaigning, reflecting on Labour's identity crisis.
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Labour Market Cooling Signals Risk
- UK unemployment has risen to 5% and payroll jobs are down around 117,000 year-on-year, signalling weakening labour demand.
- Michael Simmons argues employer NI hikes and uncertainty ahead of the budget have cooled hiring and may lower interest rates by Christmas.
Tax Hikes Threaten Labour's New Base
- Rachel Reeves faces pressure as income tax rises would hit Labour's increasingly higher-earning voter base and be politically risky.
- Scarlett Maguire warns many Labour voters earning £45–50k don't feel well off and would resist tax hikes aimed at them.
Polls Show Public Backlash Risk
- Polling shows two-thirds think Reeves should resign if income tax rises, and more people blame Labour than the Tories for fiscal woes.
- Michael Simmons highlights rising public appetite for tax cuts even at the cost of public services.