Four scenarios for the next chapter in Russia’s war against Ukraine

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now passed the three-and-a-half-year mark, and there is still no end in sight. The Trump administration’s recent push to negotiate a ceasefire ground to a halt in early September, after Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky rejected Vladimir Putin’s proposal to meet in Moscow, dismissing the invitation as a sign that his Russian counterpart has no desire to negotiate.

Meanwhile, on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russian troops are continuing their offensive in central Donbas. While Ukrainian forces have succeeded in slowing their advance, this has come at the cost of Kyiv’s defenses elsewhere, creating vulnerable gaps between frontline positions that Russian forces can slip through. With the front line becoming increasingly fluid and peace talks stalled, Russia has also continued to launch deadly missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, targeting the country’s energy grid ahead of the approaching winter months. 

By all appearances, Putin believes that if Russia’s military keeps pushing forward, it will eventually outlast and overpower Ukraine. But how much longer can the Kremlin sustain its war machine? 

In a new report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), senior fellow Maria Snegovaya and Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program director Max Bergmann break down the mounting costs of Russia’s war effort and outline four plausible scenarios for the war’s next chapter. Dr. Maria Snegovaya joins this episode of The Naked Pravda to discuss their analysis.

Time stamps for this episode:

• (2:05) The current state of the Russia–Ukraine war
• (4:49) Russia’s war strategy and unchanging goals
• (8:03) How sustainable is this war for the Kremlin?
• (13:12) How Russia is replenishing its military losses
• (17:30) Potential scenarios for the war’s future
• (26:55) Strategies for Ukraine and Western allies

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