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Francis Gavin, "Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy" (Yale UP, 2025)

Dec 4, 2025

Guest

Francis J. Gavin

Francis Gavin, a historian and director at Johns Hopkins' Kissinger Center, discusses his book, 'Thinking Historically.' He emphasizes the crucial role of historical thinking in statecraft, highlighting how it aids decision-making in complex situations. Gavin critiques the decline of strategy history, contrasts historical methods with social sciences, and shares insights on how figures like Ben Bernanke utilized history in crisis management. He also presents a practical checklist for decision-makers, advocating for a renewed appreciation and application of history across various fields.

01:17:57

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Episode notes

insights

INSIGHT

Why Statecraft History Declined

History often reflects present concerns; historians must justify selecting which past events to study.
Francis J. Gavin argues the discipline marginalized statecraft studies after the Cold War and Vietnam debates.

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INSIGHT

Everyone Thinks They Do History

Everyone thinks they 'think historically' but often do it poorly and simplistically.
Gavin says professional historians' methods are difficult and valuable, and misuse of history can be worse than ignorance.

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ADVICE

Use History To Explain Fear And Honor

Use history to illuminate human motives like fear and honor that quantitative methods miss.
Gavin recommends combining historical insight with social sciences for fuller policy analysis.

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Motivation and Audience for Thinking Historically

01:30 • 2min

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Why the Statecraft Tradition Declined

03:37 • 3min

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History versus Memory and Antiquarianism

06:16 • 7min

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Why Professional Historical Skills Matter

13:40 • 3min

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History and the Social Sciences Difference

Historical Sensibility vs. Thinking Historically

23:27 • 5min

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Can History Change Decisions? The 9/11 Example

28:25 • 1min

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Limits: History Helps Ask Better Questions

29:30 • 11min

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Ben Bernanke: An Example of Historical Judgment

51-49 Choices and Historical Judgment

44:00 • 7min

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How Historical Judgments Change Over Time

51:17 • 2min

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Thinking Historically as Meditative Self-Awareness

53:39 • 2min

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A Twelve-Question Checklist for Decision Makers

55:50 • 5min

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Supply Versus Demand: Historians' Responsibility

01:00:22 • 5min

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Apply History Across Professions and Problems

01:05:47 • 10min

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A Call for New Institutional Forms

01:16:17 • 2min

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Final Reflections and Invitation

Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr.

Arthur Schlesinger Jr.'s 'The Age of Jackson' explores the political and social transformations of the United States during the presidency of Andrew Jackson. The book portrays Jackson as a champion of the common man and a defender of democratic ideals against the entrenched interests of the elite. Schlesinger examines the key events and issues of Jackson's presidency, including the Bank War, the Nullification Crisis, and the Indian Removal Act. He emphasizes the significance of Jacksonian democracy in shaping the course of American history. The book won the Pulitzer Prize for History in 1946 and remains a classic interpretation of the Jacksonian era. It highlights Jackson's role in expanding suffrage, promoting westward expansion, and asserting presidential power.

#283

• Mentioned in 72 episodes

The Checklist Manifesto

How To Get Things Right

Atul Gawande

In 'The Checklist Manifesto', Atul Gawande explores the power of checklists in overcoming the complexities of modern professional work. He argues that despite advanced training and technology, professionals often fail due to the sheer volume and complexity of knowledge. Gawande illustrates how checklists, first introduced by the U.S. Air Force, have been successfully adopted in various fields, including medicine, to reduce errors and improve outcomes. He provides compelling examples, such as the reduction of fatalities in surgical procedures and the elimination of hospital infections, to demonstrate the effectiveness of checklists. The book emphasizes the importance of balancing autonomy and control, empowering frontline workers, and continuously improving checklists based on feedback and experience.

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• Mentioned in 2 episodes

Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty

Francis J. Gavin

This Noble Dream

Peter Novick

Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era

Francis J. Gavin

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• Mentioned in 2 episodes

Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy

Frank Gavin

#73107

Wonder and Worry: Contemporary History in an Age of Uncertainty

Francis J. Gavin

'Wonder and Worry' is a collection of essays and writings by Francis J. Gavin that explores contemporary history through the lens of uncertainty. The book delves into various themes, reflecting on the qualities of leadership, the complexities of decision-making, and the challenges of navigating an unpredictable world. Gavin's musings offer insights into the intersections of history, politics, and society. He examines the underlying assumptions that shape our understanding of current events, urging readers to question prevailing narratives. 'Wonder and Worry' presents a nuanced perspective on modern history, prompting reflection on the forces that drive global affairs and the choices that define our era. It serves as a thought-provoking commentary on the uncertainties of our time.

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• Mentioned in 2 episodes

Thinking in Time

The Uses of History for Decision Makers

Richard E. Neustadt

Ernest R. May

In 'Thinking in Time', Neustadt and May explore how historical analysis can inform and improve decision-making processes. They provide practical advice on how to apply historical insights to contemporary policy challenges, emphasizing the importance of understanding past events to make better decisions in the present.

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• Mentioned in 2 episodes

Thinking Historically

A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy

• Mentioned in 4 episodes

Choosing War

Fredrik Logevall

In his timely, thought-provoking book Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy (Yale UP, 2025), Francis Gavin makes a powerful case for why a genuine historical sensibility, rooted in curiosity, humility, and discernment, is not just an academic virtue but a critical tool for decision-makers. Rather than mining the past for tidy analogies, he argues that history should be practiced as a way of thinking: it complicates our assumptions, reveals the unexpected, and helps us understand the world, ultimately making it easier to achieve a clarity of perspective. By weaving together lessons from statecraft and strategy, Gavin shows how thinking historically equips leaders to navigate complexity, confront uncertainty, and make wiser choices in a world that all too often misuses or neglects the wisdom of the past. The book is a major contribution to the ongoing conversation about the impact that history (and the humanities) can make outside of academia. Even more importantly, Thinking Historically also functions as a practical guide to historically-grounded decision-making. We've been waiting for this book for a long time. Check out the episode if you want to learn about the value of history in decision-making, reflect on how teaching history to policymakers is like teaching sex education to teenagers, hear about how Ben Bernanke used history to make impactful economic decisions in 2008-2010, and consider what historians can learn from nuclear physicists. Not to be missed!

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