Middle East correspondent for The Economist, Gregg Carlstrom, discusses the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas, including the surprise attack by Hamas militants, the experiences of Israeli families hiding in safe rooms, and the multifaceted relationship between Palestinians and Hamas. The podcast also explores Israel's approach to Palestinians and the challenges faced by Gazans in finding a secure refuge amidst the conflict.
The surprise attack by Hamas on Israel, targeting Israeli towns and involving methods not seen since the War of Independence, has raised questions about Israel's approach to the conflict and marked an intelligence failure.
The failure of Israel's divide-and-rule strategy and the persistence of the blockade in Gaza have empowered Hamas, weakened the Palestinian Authority, and fueled radicalization and violence, reflecting the need for a political change and a shift in focus from the West Bank to Gaza.
Deep dives
Attack on Israel: Rockets, Infiltration, and Terrifying Consequences
Over the weekend, Israel faced an attack from Hamas that included rocket fire as a cover for infiltration across the border. Militants used various methods, including paragliders, driving through border fences, and swimming ashore. Israeli families experienced the horror of the assault, with reports of people being taken hostage and attacked at an outdoor music festival. The attack caught Israel by surprise, leading to discussions of an intelligence failure. While there are comparisons to past conflicts, this attack was different as it targeted Israeli towns and involved scenes not seen since the War of Independence. The prevailing emotions on the ground in Israel are shock and anger, while fear dominates among Palestinians in Gaza.
Understanding the Background and Motivations
The attack raises questions about Israel's approach to the conflict. The political climate has empowered Hamas and weakened the Palestinian Authority, discouraging negotiation and a two-state solution. The Israeli government's focus on the West Bank has led to an intelligence and security shift away from Gaza. Additionally, the blockade of Gaza, which has persisted for years, has not achieved desired political change. The attack reflects the failure of Israel's divide-and-rule strategy, as it intended to dilute Hamas's power but instead fueled radicalization and violence. The attack's timing may be related to domestic politics in Palestine, as Hamas aims to boost its popularity before an upcoming political change.
Limited Options and Ongoing Consequences
As the conflict continues, Israel faces difficult choices. One option is a potential prisoner swap, but given the brutality of the attack, this seems unlikely. Military responses, such as aerial bombardment, have been used in the past but have not led to significant change or the removal of Hamas. Tightening the blockade is also an option, but previous attempts have not achieved political change and have only deepened suffering in Gaza. The option of a ground offensive, though unpopular, may satisfy demands for stronger action but would result in devastating urban combat. Meanwhile, calls for an emergency government in Israel highlight the desire for political change and the recognition that the current far-right leadership may be hindering progress.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is vowing a complete blockade of Gaza after Hamas militants killed more than 700 Israelis this weekend. The surprise attack caught Israeli intelligence completely off-guard, and has thrown the region into disarray, on the eve of landmark talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
What’s the next stage of this already-volatile conflict? And what’s next for civilians in the Gaza Strip?
Guest: Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent for The Economist