Rich Clarida, former Fed Vice Chair and Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO, shares insights on the uncertainty brought by Trump's upcoming tariff announcement and its potential implications for markets. Michael Nathanson from MoffettNathanson discusses YouTube's remarkable growth, forecasting it to overtake Disney as the largest media company. Nancy Lazar, Chief Global Economist at Piper Sandler, explores the potential impacts of tariffs on inflation and U.S. consumer prices, highlighting fears of disruption to supply chains amidst rising economic anxiety.
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insights INSIGHT
Tariff Policy's Short-Term and Long-Term Effects
Trump's tariff policy aims to onshore production and reduce the trade deficit.
However, tariffs act as a tax on production inputs, causing uncertainty and potentially slowing the economy.
insights INSIGHT
Market Reaction to Tariff Uncertainty
Wall Street analysts are lowering GDP estimates and raising inflation expectations due to tariff policy uncertainty.
This reaction is reasonable in the near to intermediate term.
insights INSIGHT
Current Labor Market and Inflation
The current labor market is at the Fed's target, with a 4% unemployment rate.
The Fed doesn't believe the labor market is currently driving inflation.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 1st, 2025 Featuring: 1) Rich Clarida, Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO and former Fed Vice Chair, joins for an extended discussion on how the Fed will digest this week's tariff announcement and the March payrolls data. President Trump's upcoming announcement on tariffs has created uncertainty, leading investors to be cautious and strategists to lower their estimates. 2) Michael Nathanson, partner at MoffettNathanson, joins to discuss his note on YouTube dominance. Measured by revenue, YouTube was the second-biggest media company in the world last year. It brought in $54.2 billion in 2024 — just $5.5 billion behind Disney. And in 2025, Nathanson predicts, YouTube should eclipse Disney, and become the biggest media company in the world. 3) Nancy Lazar, Chief Global Economist at Piper Sandler & Co, joins for an extended discussion on the outlook for the US economy and inflation. President Trump will announce a reciprocal tariff plan on April 2 in the White House Rose Garden, featuring "country-based" tariffs. Uncertainty surrounding his plans, which have often changed and been subject to last-minute carveouts, have triggered fears they could blow up supply chains and raise prices for US consumers. That angst has fueled a weeks-long sell off on Wall Street that extended into Monday. 4) Chris Ailman, former CIO at CalSTRS and founder of Ailman Advisers, discusses his role as the Chair of the 300 Club and what he's hearing is front of mind for global CIOs. One consideration for businesses and investors: the stream of executive orders and reversals coming from the White House — Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods last month, then exempted those covered by USMCA — have required customs experts and trade lawyers. While some companies have their own in-house teams, others have sought outside help in reviewing their products to ensure that enough of them are made in North America. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including YouTube about to become the world's biggest media company and Disney getting the last laugh on Snow White.
Bloomberg Surveillance 