Smart Humans with Slava Rubin Smart Humans: Pre-IPO Briefing on Polymarket and Kalshi w/ Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund
Dec 23, 2025
Jan-Erik Asplund, a Partner at Sacra and prediction-markets expert, delves into the intriguing world of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. He explains the mechanics behind binary event contracts and the recent surge in popularity driven by regulatory changes and technological advancements. The conversation highlights Kalshi's unique CFTC-approved model and Polymarket's crypto-first strategy. They also explore market-making, liquidity dynamics, and the potential for mainstream adoption, discussing how these platforms could reshape the trading landscape.
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How Prediction Markets Price Outcomes
- Prediction markets work like stock markets but for future events, pricing outcomes as implied probabilities.
- They pay $1 for winning contracts and rely on peer-to-peer matching rather than a house edge.
No House Edge, Fees Instead
- Unlike sportsbooks, prediction markets don't set odds to extract a house edge; they monetize via transaction fees.
- Calyshi charges around ~1.5% net while Polymarket initially charged nothing but plans fees when entering the U.S.
Why Prediction Markets Took Off Now
- Prediction markets resurged due to regulatory easing, crypto infrastructure, retail trading momentum, and major election events.
- These forces moved the category from niche academic interest to mainstream retail and B2B use cases.