Bankless The Bull Case For Prediction Markets | Ryan & David
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Oct 9, 2025 Ryan and David delve into prediction markets, exploring their differences from traditional sportsbooks. They highlight platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, discussing scalability and regulatory challenges. The hosts debate whether these markets serve as valuable information sources or mere gambling avenues. Interesting insights emerge about market accessibility in the U.S. and the potential for hedge funds to engage with these platforms. Predictions suggest that these markets could significantly outpace traditional betting, impacting both finance and governance.
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How Prediction Markets Price Future Events
- Prediction markets let people trade on binary future outcomes and discover probabilities via peer-to-peer order books.
- They produce live probability lines by letting buyers and sellers agree on a price that implies chance.
Polymarket's 2024 Election Moment
- Polymarket showed Donald Trump at ~99% odds hours before mainstream media called the 2024 election.
- Crypto users saw this as evidence prediction markets can surface faster, accurate signals than traditional media.
Kalshi's Legal Breakthrough
- Kalshi won a court battle allowing it to list political election markets in the U.S. under CFTC rules.
- That decision enabled Kalshi to partner with Robinhood and onboard mainstream U.S. customers.
