Top Traders Unplugged SI349: Navigating the Age of Uncertainty with Trend Following ft. Mark Rzepczynski
44 snips
May 24, 2025 In this discussion, Mark Rzepczynski, a macro insights expert and market analyst, examines today's unpredictable financial landscape. He explores the breaking down of traditional market relationships, like the unreliability of bonds amidst political interventions. They delve into the intricate connection between social trust and economic stability, illustrating how cultural trust affects inflation. The conversation highlights the necessity of adapting trend-following strategies to navigate this age of uncertainty, offering listeners valuable insights for risk management.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
State-Created Age of Uncertainty
- The current age of uncertainty is driven largely by state-created uncertainties like trade wars and policy shifts.
- This differs from past crises caused by market excesses, affecting trend following strategies uniquely.
Uncertainty vs. Risk in Markets
- Uncertainty differs from risk and is essentially the level of ignorance about future events.
- Trend following struggles when uncertainty resolves positively, causing market reversals and losses.
Trend Followers: Long and Short Volatility
- Trend followers are long volatility over the long term but short volatility in the short term due to stop-loss mechanisms.
- Intraday volatility spikes can cause losses even if the long-term trend remains intact.