

"Two-year update on my personal AI timelines" by Ajeya Cotra
6 snips Sep 22, 2022
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Timelines Shifted Earlier And Narrower
- Ajeya Cotra shifted her TAI timeline notably earlier: ~15% by 2030, ~35% by 2036, median ~2040.
- This concentrates probability mass into a narrower 2026–2050 window compared to her prior 2032–2064 spread.
Automating AI Research Lowers The Bar
- Cotra now treats automating AI research/engineering as a lower bar for transformative impact than automating all science.
- She reasons that automating AI R&D can create fast feedback loops that rapidly accelerate AI progress itself.
Short Horizon Training Seems More Plausible
- She became more confident that short effective training horizons can produce transformative capabilities without extensive meta-learning.
- This reduces required model size and effective horizon for TAI compared to her earlier view.