

"Two-year update on my personal AI timelines" by Ajeya Cotra
6 snips Sep 22, 2022
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Introduction
00:00 • 3min
Is TAI Soonish?
03:20 • 3min
Automate AI R&D Leads to Explosive Feedback Loop of AI Progress
06:25 • 3min
Is Short Horizon Training Necessary?
09:31 • 3min
Is There Evidence for Efficient Meta Learning?
12:27 • 2min
The Bar for Transformative in Quotes
14:55 • 3min
Explicitly Breaking Out GPT-N as an Anchor
17:46 • 2min
ML Scaling Up
20:07 • 4min
A Few Updates That Push Toward Longer Timelines
24:19 • 4min
Is There a Future for AI?
28:20 • 2min
Transformative AI in Quotes - A New Dot Point
30:37 • 3min
Putting Numbers on Timelines
33:52 • 2min
AI Risk - A Strategic Update
35:41 • 4min