The Briefing Room Iran: What happens next?
Jun 26, 2025
In this discussion, Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, and Dr. Patricia Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear physics, dive into the complexities surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions. They analyze how U.S. military actions have impacted Iran's nuclear capabilities and the country's potential for regime change. The conversation also covers the internal turmoil within Iran and the implications of an upcoming leadership succession, alongside Iran's ongoing quest for nuclear materials amid growing international scrutiny.
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Iran's Nuclear Program Origins
- Iran's nuclear program was initially sidelined due to religious and political reasons post-1979 revolution.
- A fatwa against weapons of mass destruction constrains Iran's pursuit of nuclear arms publicly.
Iran's Uranium Enrichment Levels
- Iran’s uranium enrichment at 60% is alarmingly close to weapons-grade levels which require about 90%.
- Enrichment rate accelerates sharply beyond 20%, heightening proliferation risks.
Uncertain Impact of US Strikes
- US bombings heavily damaged some Iranian sites but key uranium stockpiles remain unaccounted for.
- Intelligence might be distorted to suit political narratives, complicating true damage assessment.