The Political Scene | The New Yorker

A Stark Warning About the 2026 Election, with Robert Kagan

11 snips
Jan 16, 2026
Robert Kagan, a historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, shares alarming insights into the state of American democracy. He revisits his 2016 warnings about Trump's authoritarian tendencies, arguing that the crisis has escalated. Kagan asserts that the 2026 elections could be pivotal, fearing Trump may not accept defeat. He discusses how federal actions in Minnesota could normalize authoritarianism and the troubling implications for global order, stressing the urgency for civic engagement to safeguard democracy.
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INSIGHT

How Authoritarianism Can Arrive Unannounced

  • Robert Kagan predicted in 2016 that Trump could produce a fascist-like outcome without classic symbols like jackboots.
  • He warned a TV huckster dominating a mass movement plus control of state power is a new route to authoritarianism.
INSIGHT

An Ideological Project To Overturn The Founders

  • Kagan says the movement behind Trump aims to overturn the founders' liberal government and restore hierarchical order.
  • He ties modern ideologues and advisers to an explicit project to replace equality with a return to ranked social order.
INSIGHT

Expect Moves To Prevent A 2026 Loss

  • Kagan predicts Trump will not accept losing the 2026 election and will use federal force and legal maneuvers to retain power.
  • He sees actions like provoking riots, deploying ICE, and invoking the Insurrection Act as steps toward seizing ballots.
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