An Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2032. What Can We Do about It?
Feb 12, 2025
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Lee Billings, Senior space and physics editor at Scientific American, discusses the alarming news about asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. He outlines how astronomers monitor such celestial bodies and the technological strategies needed for risk mitigation, including kinetic impactors and nuclear methods. Billings emphasizes the importance of international collaboration in addressing this cosmic threat and describes both best and worst-case scenarios in the event of an impact.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2 percent chance of collision with Earth in 2032, prompting urgent monitoring and preparedness plans.
International cooperation is vital for proactive measures against potential asteroid threats, including developing plans for deflection or impact mitigation.
Deep dives
The Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Significant Discovery
An asteroid named 2024 YR4 has been making headlines due to its calculated chance of colliding with Earth, currently estimated at about 2%. This asteroid, detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System, was found in late December 2023 and is projected to make a notably close pass on December 22, 2032. The attention is largely due to its risk threshold; any asteroid with a greater than 1% chance of impact is considered noteworthy. Such a level of risk is rare and adds urgency to monitoring its trajectory.
Detection and Monitoring of Asteroids
The detection of asteroids like 2024 YR4 relies on wide field survey telescopes that scan the night sky, looking for objects that move against the static backdrop of distant stars. These telescopes take sequential images to identify movements, allowing astronomers to calculate orbits and categorize new objects. Despite the ongoing monitoring, the orbit of 2024 YR4 is still not fully refined, making predictions about its future path uncertain. The fluctuating chances of collision, as recently observed, highlight the dynamic nature of monitoring these celestial bodies.
Potential Impact Scenarios and Preparedness
In the event of a collision, the potential consequences depend on the asteroid's size and composition, which could range from 40 to 100 meters. If it were to impact, preliminary evaluations suggest it might break up in Earth's atmosphere, similar to the Tunguska event in 1908, causing regional devastation if it were to strike an inhabited area. The discussion emphasizes proactive measures for potential asteroid threats, involving international cooperation through groups like the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group. Preparatory efforts might include developing a response plan that could involve kinetic impactors or even nuclear options to redirect the asteroid's path.
The European Space Agency recently announced that the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2 percent chance of hitting our planet in 2032. The probability of impact is difficult to predict exactly and will be clearer in 2028, when 2024 YR4 will whiz by us. But if the asteroid really is on a collision course with Earth, what can we do about it? Senior space and physics editor Lee Billings joins host Rachel Feltman to unpack this headline-making story.
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Science Quickly is produced by Rachel Feltman, Fonda Mwangi, Kelso Harper, Madison Goldberg, Naeem Amarsy and Jeff DelViscio. This episode was hosted by Rachel Feltman with guest Lee Billings. Our show is edited by Jeff DelViscio with fact-checking by Shayna Posses and Aaron Shattuck. The theme music was composed by Dominic Smith.