Disconnect between overperformance in special elections and Biden's poll numbers

Despite Joe Biden's relatively lower poll numbers, the Democratic Party has been overperforming in special elections. While some of it could be attributed to the composition of special election voters, it also highlights a strategy of the Republican Party playing to its base during general elections and alienating swing voters. Biden's poll numbers reflect a national referendum on his presidency, and few presidents successfully win referendums. To address this, Biden must present a clear ideological contrast to appeal to suburban Republicans and win them over with a vision for a better future. The Republicans' extreme positions and primary-focused strategy contribute to their alienation from swing voters.