NatSec Matters Inside Israel's High-Stakes Intelligence Gambles: Ralph Goff
Oct 8, 2025
Ralph Goff, a 35-year CIA veteran and former Chief of Station, delves into Israel's audacious intelligence operations against Iran. He discusses the high-stakes 'Rising Lion' operation and details Israel's daring theft of Iran's nuclear archive. Goff sheds light on the Mossad's unique risk tolerance, strategic assassinations, and the complexities of covert actions. He also addresses the role of ethnic divisions in Iran, the evolution of Israeli tradecraft, and surprising lessons drawn from the Ukraine intelligence landscape.
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Iran's Internal Fractures Create Intelligence Openings
- Iran is a police theocracy with heavy surveillance but significant ethnic and regional diversity.
- Those internal divisions create exploitable points for foreign intelligence services like Mossad.
Existential Threat Changes Risk Calculus
- Israel treats Iran as an existential threat, so its risk calculus differs sharply from the U.S.
- That elevated risk tolerance enables audacious operations that the U.S. would likely avoid.
Stealing Iran's Nuclear Archive
- The Mossad exfiltrated Iran's nuclear archive from a Tehran warehouse over a long weekend.
- The operation required lethal action, high-level approval, and complex logistics to smuggle documents out by air.
