Podzept from Deutsche Bank Research Structured Thoughts: 2026 Year Ahead
Nov 23, 2025
Join Kayvon Daruyan, Jamie Flannick, Doug Runty, and Bipul Sinha from Deutsche Bank Research as they delve into the 2026 outlook for securitized markets. They discuss the strength of U.S. consumers supporting ABS performance and the challenges faced by the leveraged loan market. The team highlights the robust fundamentals behind aircraft ABS and warns about potential defaults in commercial real estate. Amid these dynamics, they explore investment opportunities and predict nearly $1 trillion in issuance, making this a crucial listen for investors.
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Consumer Health Drives ABS Outlook
- The health of the U.S. consumer is the primary driver for ABS performance next year.
- Low unemployment, rising net worth, and easing consumer loan rates support stable consumer credit.
Leveraged Loan Market Is CLO Bedrock
- CLO performance hinges on the health of the underlying leveraged loan market.
- Loan prices declining to sub-97 and past defaults create a fog over CLOs and issuance dynamics.
Single-Asset Risk Threatens CMBS AAAs
- SASB defaults uniquely threaten CMBS capital stacks and can cause AAAs to take losses.
- Conduit pools have higher expected losses but diversification shields senior tranches.