The Intelligence from The Economist The Intelligence: The darkness before the Don
Jan 18, 2024
Henry Trix, who writes Schumpeter for The Economist, discusses how many business leaders fear the economic consequences of a second Trump term, pondering the potential impact of populist policies and trade wars. Piotr Zalewskiy offers a poignant look at the war's devastating toll on Ukraine's cultural heritage, detailing the extensive loss and looting of historic artifacts. The conversation also highlights the staggering rise in olive oil prices, now viewed as a luxury due to demand and climate issues, reflecting broader challenges in global food security.
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Trump 2.0: A Bigger Economic Risk?
- A second Trump term could be worse for the US economy than his first.
- Different economic conditions and more extreme policy proposals contribute to this concern.
Trade War Fears
- Trump's proposed baseline 10% import levy, potentially targeting China, raises concerns about a trade war.
- This could damage trade relations with other key partners like Mexico and Canada.
Migration and Debt Concerns
- Trump's proposed mass deportation of undocumented migrants could worsen worker shortages.
- His tax cuts, favored over deficit reduction, could further strain government debt and weaken the dollar.