Gulf Intelligence Podcasts PODCAST: Daily Energy Markets - Oct 12th
Oct 13, 2025
In this insightful discussion, Christof Rühl, a senior research scholar at Columbia University, teams up with Antoine Halff, co-founder of Kayrros. They dive into OPEC+'s production strategies and the reality of China’s shifting oil inventory dynamics. The geopolitical implications of conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine on global oil markets are examined. They also tackle U.S. economic resilience, trade tensions with China, and the integrity of U.S. economic data as factors influencing market trust and short-term price outlooks. A must-listen for energy market enthusiasts!
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OPEC+ Adds Supply But Global Inventories Barely Move
- OPEC+ supply increases look real in the Gulf but are constrained elsewhere, so global crude inventories show only a small net draw.
- Satellite data reveal geographic rebalancing: China draws offset by builds elsewhere, implying limited global loosening.
Geopolitical Risks Shift Toward Energy Infrastructure
- The Gaza conflict and leaked US intelligence support to Ukraine raise the risk of targeted strikes on energy infrastructure.
- Renewed support to Ukraine could expand attacks on Russian energy assets, changing geopolitical supply risk dynamics.
China-US Trade Moves Raise Long-Term Demand Risk
- China's export controls on critical minerals shocked markets and escalated tensions with the US ahead of trade talks.
- Prolonged trade friction between China and the US would harm long-term global growth and demand for oil.