Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

John Candeto: The Importance of Survival, The Power Laws, The Study of Complexity in Investing

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Sep 25, 2024

John Candeto, Founder and Managing Partner of the Phronesis Fund, explores the intriguing intersection of complexity and investing. He emphasizes that survival is key to investment success and highlights the importance of power laws in wealth growth. Candeto challenges traditional statistics, advocating for a long-term perspective over short-term fluctuations. He discusses values-based decision-making and the significance of asking the right questions to navigate complexity. Additionally, he shares insights on balancing structure with serendipity to enhance creativity.

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ANECDOTE

Software Business with High Margins

John Candeto built a software business with unusually high gross margins (over 90%).
This experience highlighted the shift from tangible to intangible assets and their impact on traditional accounting.

INSIGHT

Survival and Power Laws in Investing

Survival is key; prioritize resilience against various future scenarios.
Then, wisely accelerate wealth growth by exposing yourself to power law outcomes.

INSIGHT

Limitations of Traditional Statistics

Traditional frequentist statistics, while useful in some contexts, are inappropriate for complex systems.
Observing systems over time reveals more about their behavior than point-in-time measurements.

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A fascinating, wide-ranging discussion.

John Candeto is the Founder and Managing Partner of the Phronesis Fund. Co-Founder of JoinWDA (Workforce Data Alliance).

Tom Morgan connected us. We met at Markel’s meeting in Richmond earlier this year. I’ve been looking forward to this conversation, and you will see in a moment why.

John applies the study of Complexity to investing, and he is open to discussing it with others, please feel free to reach out to him.

Takeaways:

Survival is a crucial aspect of investing.
Exposing oneself to power law outcomes is essential for wise wealth growth.
Volatility is not the same as risk; risk involves the potential for permanent loss of capital.
Traditional statistics and averages have limitations in understanding complex systems and long-term investing.
Taking a long-term view in investing allows for a different perspective and reduces the focus on short-term fluctuations.
Power laws are prevalent in various aspects of life, such as economic output and company size.
Living by a set of values helps prioritize and make intentional choices.
Learning in public and engaging in feedback loops accelerates personal growth and understanding.
Asking the right questions is essential in navigating complex issues and finding valuable insights.
Writing family stories can help reflect on values and create a sense of gratitude.
Balancing structure and serendipity is important for productivity and creativity.

Here are some resources that could help with your prep:

JohnCandeto.com (links to everything)

HowWeWantToLive.com (family values and journey)

Partnership Letters

Power Laws Rule the World

Partnership Summary

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement

Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.