In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 182: Things To Watch in 2025

Jan 5, 2025

Get ready for a glimpse into Russia's future! Key figures like Elvira Nabiullina and Ramzan Kadyrov are set to shape governance in 2025. The rise of Alexei Dyumin signifies a generational shift in power dynamics, challenging the old guard. Meanwhile, the security landscape evolves with the potential for new alliances and the ‘Shadow War’ brewing in Africa. As political pseudo-realities crumble, could a younger, more loyal leadership emerge amidst the chaos? Stay tuned for a fascinating analysis of these trends!

54:59

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Quick takeaways

Elvira Nabiullina's ongoing influence in Russian economic policies, particularly amidst shifting criticisms from Putin, could signal broader changes in governance strategies.

The transition of Alexander Hienstein to a significant political role reflects a potential generational shift in Russian leadership influenced by contemporary challenges.

Deep dives

The Value of Prediction in Analysis

Making predictions about future events can often mislead analysts and misrepresent current situations. Asserting predictions without acknowledging present complexities can lead to misunderstandings about the dynamics in play. For example, framing Ukraine's potential losses without recognizing its current military strategies oversimplifies a nuanced issue. Analysts are encouraged to focus on present conditions and offer insights that stem from real-time evaluations rather than speculative forecasts.

Intro

3min

Key Political Figures to Watch in Russia's Future

7min

Political Ascendance: The Rise of Alexei Dumin

5min

Power Dynamics in Russian Politics: Looking Ahead to 2025

8min

Navigating Power: Russia's Security Council Dynamics

30min

Navigating Power Dynamics in Putin's Russia

2min

Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025?

For those who get lost in the flow, they are:

PERSONALIA

· Elvira Nabiullina

· Ramzan Kadyrov

· Alexander Khinshtein

· Alexei Dyumin

· Sergei Naryshkin

· Nikolai Patrushev

· (Not Mikhail Mishustin/Anton Vaino)

INSTITS

· Security Council

· FSB

· State Council

PROCESSES

· ‘Covert federalisation’

· Lateral alliances

· End of party pseudo-politics?

· Rise of SVO generation?

· Labour shortage

· Deviancy

POLICIES

· Shadow War

· Africa/North Africa

· India

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

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