In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 122: Taking on Conventional Wisdom About Putin

Nov 12, 2023

Exploring the accuracy of conventional assumptions about Putin, including his consistency and need for war. Discussing the emerging opposition in Russia and the impact of public opinion. Examining Putin's ability to maintain a national mission without a shooting war. Highlighting the importance of being realistic in negotiating with Putin.

42:53

AI Summary

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Putin's objectives are modified by circumstances and plausibility, prioritizing survival and protecting resources and cronies.

While an autocrat, Putin cares about public opinion and uses propaganda to maintain support and legitimacy.

Deep dives

Conventional Wisdom: Putin's Fixed Objectives

There is a conventional notion that Putin has clear and unchanging objectives for Russia, but the reality is more nuanced. While Putin has a general idea of what he wants for himself and Russia, his objectives are modified by circumstances and plausibility. His ultimate priority is survival and protecting his resources and cronies. For example, in the case of Ukraine, he wants control, but the meaning of control can vary. Deals can be made with Putin, but they need to be built with safeguards and penalties for failure.

Introduction

5min

Russia's Emerging New Opposition

17min

The Importance of Public Opinion in Putin's Regime

5min

Maintaining a National Mission without a Shooting War: Putin's Narrative

11min

Realistic Parameters for Talks with Russia and the Importance of Being Realistic in Dealing with Putin

5min

After looking at a few recent news stories that caught my eye, on everything from the Ministry of Happiness to a surprisingly subversive economic plan, I look at four conventional wisdoms about Putin. He knows what he wants and it never changes. He doesn't have to care about public opinion. He needs the war to go on for ever. He can't be negotiated with. It's not, in my opinion, that they are all outright wrong, but two of them are, and two need more nuance. Without understanding that, we condemn us all to the current status quo so long as Putin is in the Kremlin -- at the very least.

The events I mentioned are at De Balie in Amsterdam on 20 November (details here) and Pushkin House in London on 4 December (details here).

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.

Support the show

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode