Explore the expectations for 2024, including upcoming elections, potential interest rate cuts, and the impact of AI. Discuss the surprising market conditions in 2023 and the importance of US presidential elections. Dive into the potential business model for generative AI in 2024, and listen for predictions, show notes, and ad-free listening.
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Quick takeaways
Recessions and market behavior can be hard to understand, emphasizing the need for humility when making predictions in the stock market.
The tension between a trigger-happy market and central banks creates communication challenges and managing expectations, particularly as inflationary pressures persist.
Deep dives
Market Surprises in 2023
Despite predictions of a recession, 2023 saw a strong rally in the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining over 20%. Many fund managers admitted their predictions were wrong, highlighting the need to be humble and acknowledge that recessions and market behavior can be hard to understand.
Uncertainty and Rate Cuts in 2024
The market is pricing in multiple interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024, while stock markets remain near record highs. The tension between a trigger-happy market and central banks poses challenges for communication and managing expectations. As inflationary pressures persist, any signs of increased inflation could lead to volatile market reactions.
Elections and AI in 2024
2024 will be a year of elections worldwide, creating potential domestic market volatility. The US presidential election is especially significant due to the stark contrast in visions for the country's role and economic policies. The UK election could signal a return to moderation in British politics. In Asia, India's elections and Taiwan's position as a flashpoint are crucial geopolitical events to watch. Additionally, 2024 may see companies looking to monetize generative AI and an increase in regulatory efforts to address concerns surrounding AI technology.
The FT’s Peter Spiegel, Katie Martin and Elaine Moore preview what could happen in geopolitics, markets and artificial intelligence in 2024.
The FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help by Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Monica Lopez. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.