Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast Effectively Wild Episode 2422: The 2026 Minor League Free Agent Draft
4 snips
Jan 3, 2026 The hosts dive into the Astros' unexpected signing of Tatsuya Imai and the complexities behind NPB deals. They engage in a friendly competition with the 13th annual Minor League Free Agent Draft, strategically selecting players aimed at maximizing MLB playing time. Highlighted picks include Eddie Yean and Chaz McCormick, showcasing both statistical savvy and roster needs. The discussion evolves into insights about unsigned pitchers and unique player stats, wrapping up with amusing trivia and a nod to the unpredictability of minor league dynamics.
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Imai Deal Was A Smaller-Than-Expected Payday
- Tatsuya Imai's three-year, $54M deal undershot market expectations despite being the top NPB pitcher this offseason.
- The contract may be a bargain for the Astros if Imai provides league-average starter innings and durability.
Market Anchors For NPB Arms Distort Value
- Scouts and public projections had grown anchored by prior high-profile NPB signings, inflating expectations for Imai and Murakami.
- Teams still value translation risk and class context, so top NPB prospects won't always command Yamamoto-level contracts.
Draft For MLB Playing Time, Not Peak Talent
- Draft minor league free agents expecting to maximize MLB plate appearances and batters faced for 2026 when choosing picks.
- Prioritize players likeliest to reach MLB duty rather than pure talent to win the playing-time contest.
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