Bell Curve Bitcoin Seasonality, Capital Flows, and New Stablecoins | Roundup
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Oct 3, 2025 Dive into the intriguing world of Bitcoin as the hosts explore its seasonal trends and the potential for a strong Q4. They also compare venture capital flows in crypto versus AI, highlighting where the money is pouring in. The discussion takes a turn to Flying Tulip's innovative $200M seed structure and its capital mechanics. Plus, insights into Keel's debut on Solana and Stripe's new tools for bespoke stablecoins. Finally, they analyze Cloudflare's NET Dollar and its implications for internet payments.
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Bitcoin’s Q4 Seasonality And Flows
- Bitcoin historically shows strong Q4 seasonality with October–December being the best months on average.
- Hosts link seasonality to flows, institutional actions (e.g., MicroStrategy) and end‑of‑year investor behavior.
Flows Trump Narrative For Price Moves
- Capital flows matter more than narrative for price moves; fresh institutional fundraising drives structural inflows.
- Michael warns new funds raise fresh capital which can bolster crypto prices via allocation flows.
AI Early‑Stage Is Capital Constrained
- Early‑stage AI is capital constrained despite headline mega‑rounds, creating overlap with crypto fundraising dynamics.
- Vance and Mike note crypto's ability to marshal large seed rounds is attractive to AI spinouts.