Alphabet Earnings Miss Estimates, China Launches Retaliatory Probe
Feb 5, 2025
auto_awesome
Annabelle Droulers, Bloomberg Tech Correspondent based in Hong Kong, dissects Alphabet's disappointing earnings as concerns mount over its cloud revenue and increasing investor caution amid fierce AI competition. She also sheds light on China's retaliatory antitrust probe against the tech giant, framed within the context of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The discussion culminates in an analysis of how these tariff dynamics impact currency markets, especially regarding the offshore yuan and broader Asian economies.
Alphabet's disappointing earnings, particularly in its cloud division, raise concerns about financial sustainability amid intense competition and high capital expenditures.
The U.S.-China trade war is exacerbating currency volatility in Asia, impacting not only China but also trade-dependent economies like Vietnam and Korea.
Deep dives
Impact of U.S.-China Tariffs on Alphabet
The implementation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods has prompted a retaliatory response from China, including an investigation into Alphabet for alleged antitrust violations. The focus of this investigation centers on the dominance of Google's Android operating system in China's smartphone market, where it holds a significant share. Despite these developments, Alphabet's stock price surprisingly did not fluctuate significantly after the news, closing 2% higher, indicating investor focus on broader earnings insights rather than immediate geopolitical tensions. This situation reflects the complex interplay between international trade conflicts and individual corporate performances in the technology sector.
Alphabet's Earnings and Market Expectations
Alphabet's quarterly earnings report revealed disappointing revenue figures, particularly in its cloud division, which fell short of analyst expectations at approximately $11.2 billion compared to the $12.2 billion forecast. This shortfall has heightened investor caution, especially amidst an evolving competitive landscape with new entrants like DeepSeek challenging established AI models. Investors' skepticism is further fueled by Alphabet's significant capital expenditure forecast of $75 billion for the year, which exceeds previous estimates and raises concerns about the company's financial sustainability in uncertain economic conditions. The combination of these factors suggests that Alphabet must strategically justify its spending amid rising competition and changing market dynamics.
Currency Markets and Emerging Economies Amidst Trade Tensions
The ongoing U.S.-China trade war continues to influence foreign exchange markets, with the offshore yuan remaining under pressure near record lows following the imposition of tariffs. Analysts predict the Chinese government will maintain steadiness in its currency fixing to avoid further volatility that could exacerbate trade tensions with the U.S. As the dollar strengthens, emerging market currencies, particularly those closely tied to trade with China, are likely to experience increased volatility and could be adversely affected. The interconnected nature of supply chains across Asia means that rising trade friction not only impacts China but also has cascading effects on trade-oriented economies such as Vietnam and Korea, which could face increased scrutiny from U.S. trade policies.
On today's episode, we get a breakdown of Alphabet's earnings with Annabelle Droulers, Bloomberg Tech Correspondent in Hong Kong. This as the company also faces a probe from Chinese anti-trust regulators amid a fresh US-China trade war. Plus - a look at how America's new China tariffs are reverberating through the currency space with Eddie Cheung, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at Credit Agricole CIB.