The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Should China Invade Siberia? || Peter Zeihan
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Oct 16, 2025 Could China really seize Siberia while Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine? The discussion dives into the complexities of Siberian energy resources, highlighting Western control and operational challenges. With a low population and limited agricultural potential, long-term Chinese occupation seems unlikely. Additionally, Russia's formidable nuclear arsenal serves as a significant deterrent against invasion. The podcast also explores the need to physically isolate Siberia from European Russia, but ultimately concludes that such scenarios are far from imminent.
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Siberia's Resources Aren't Readily Exploitable
- The most valuable resources in Siberia are oil and gas, but many key fields are operated by Western firms.
- China lacks the technical capability to run those complex projects even if it seized the facilities.
Sparse Land Limits Strategic Value
- Siberia's low population (10–15 million) reflects very limited carrying capacity and poor agricultural potential.
- China could not easily forward-stage a productive population to exploit the land.
Nuclear Deterrent Trumps Conventional Options
- Russia retains the world's largest nuclear arsenal and has policies to threaten nuclear strikes if China invades.
- That nuclear deterrent remains a decisive barrier against conventional seizure of Siberia.