Daily Politics from the New Statesman Labour’s polling nightmare
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Dec 5, 2025 Ben Walker, a senior data journalist and polling expert at the New Statesman, joins to dissect Labour's alarming polling crisis as the party sits at just 14%. He highlights the importance of aggregating multiple polls due to methodological differences and warns that current numbers indicate a 'rock bottom' low. They discuss Keir Starmer's dwindling approval ratings and potential leadership changes, while exploring how evolving political volatility might impact Labour's future. The conversation underscores the urgent need for the party to reassess its strategy amid rising challenges.
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Polls Diverge Because Samples Differ
- Polling varies widely because samples and methodologies differ, so single outlier polls mislead.
- Ben Walker warns many pollsters over-rely on online samples that exaggerate highly engaged voters' views.
Triangulate Polls Before Reacting
- Do not treat a single poll as definitive; use poll aggregators like Britain Elects for context.
- Ben Walker advises triangulating multiple polls because individual surveys have margins of error and sampling quirks.
Online Enthusiasm Can Misread Electoral Strength
- Reform's poll surge has often reflected highly engaged, digitally active supporters rather than broad, offline turnout.
- Walker notes reform earlier polled 5–10% from logged-on cohorts but didn't initially translate to electoral results.