Julie Su, United States Acting Secretary of Labor, discusses US payrolls growth. Randy Kroszner talks about a possible Goldilocks scenario in the labor market. The podcast also covers Amrita Sen's call for $100 oil by Halloween and the challenges faced by the bond market.
Negotiations between UAW and employers focus on fair contracts for workers, emphasizing the resurgence of worker power in demanding improved conditions.
Higher real yields positively impact the Federal Reserve's goal of a strong labor market without excessive inflation, allowing firms to invest and hire.
Deep dives
Labor Market Negotiations: UAW and Health Care Strikes
The podcast episode discusses the ongoing negotiations between the UAW and employers, focusing on the issue of record contracts for working people when corporate profits are high. The Acting US Secretary of Labor shares that the negotiations are ongoing, with both parties involved in the collective bargaining process. The demands for wages and conditions are being addressed, and there is a sense of optimism in reaching a resolution. The podcast also highlights health care strikes and the resurgence of worker power in demanding fair and improved working conditions.
Bond Market Analysis and Higher Real Yields
The podcast episode features an interview with a financial economist who analyzes the significance of higher real yields on investments and economic decisions. The guest explains that the real yield, which takes into account inflation, affects firms' willingness to invest and hire. The recent strong jobs report and the absence of significant wage growth are seen as positive for the Federal Reserve, as it aligns with their goal of achieving a strong labor market without excessive inflation. The potential impact of higher yields on the fixed-income market and bond prices is also discussed.
Exxon's Acquisition Strategy and the Shift in the Oil Industry
The podcast episode examines Exxon's acquisition strategy and its desire to expand its activities in the oil-rich region of Lubbock and New Mexico. The conversation focuses on the changing dynamics of the oil industry, with a shift towards slower and more consolidated growth. The goal is to achieve efficiency and the return of profits to shareholders rather than merely increasing production. The guest emphasizes the importance of understanding that while decarbonization is necessary, fossil fuels will still play a crucial role in meeting energy demands as populations and economies continue to grow.
Oil Price Volatility and Consolidation in the US Shale Industry
The podcast episode explores the recent volatility in oil prices and its impact on the US shale industry. The guest highlights that the recent decline in prices is driven by positioning and macroeconomic factors rather than fundamental supply and demand dynamics. The conversation also emphasizes the ongoing consolidation in the industry, with companies seeking to acquire adjacent acreage and increase efficiency. The focus is now on quality rather than quantity, with a greater emphasis on generating returns for shareholders.
Julie Su, United States Acting Secretary of Labor, discusses US payrolls growth blowing past estimates. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Fed Governor, says it's possible that we could have a Goldilocks scenario with a strong labor market and not-too-high wage growth. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says this is a much stronger labor market. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder and Head of Research, maintains her call of $100 oil by Halloween despite the recent price slump in oil. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
