We tell the story of the single greatest business ever created: Google search. From its origins as a Stanford research project called BackRub, Google became the front door to the internet. Today it’s an essential service for over half the world, and one that generates more profit than ANY other US company — more than Apple, Microsoft, or Berkshire Hathaway.

But it wasn’t always so obvious. When Larry and Sergey began working on BackRub in 1996, search was a backwater industry in silicon valley. Existing search companies were eking out a living as vendors to the then-dominant “portals” like AOL and Yahoo. Google’s come-from-behind success was the result of three massive step-function leaps forward in algorithms, infrastructure and business model… some invented by Google and some borrowed (and perfected!) by them.

Today, things are not so obvious once again for Google. Despite earning more profits than all of its big tech peers, its stock trades at significantly lower multiples — a $1 trillion or more discount to Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia. Investors are concerned that AI will render Google’s beautiful business model obsolete, even though Google also basically invented modern AI and continues to lead on many dimensions. This episode begins a multi-part series where we dive into the full history that led us to this point. Tune in and enjoy!

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Counter Intuition | S.B. Keshava Swami in Davos, Switzerland, January 2025