Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality 6a – The Planning Fallacy, part 1
May 4, 2011
Harry Potter explores the concept of magic, seeks guidance from Professor McGonagall, and discusses the possibility of using scientific experimentation to unravel its mysteries. Harry's concerns about safety lead to a debate with McGonagall about the expense and necessity of a healer's kit.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Science vs. Wizard Tech
- Muggle science involves systematic experimentation to uncover rules, unlike wizard technology development.
- Harry notes wizarding education rarely fosters scientific method or curiosity in magical mechanics.
Healer's Kit as Preparedness
- Harry buys a healer's kit to prepare for unforeseen dangerous situations despite skepticism from Professor McGonagall.
- His cautiousness is misunderstood as planning danger or world domination but is motivated by wanting to help classmates in emergencies.
Use Pessimism in New Plans
- When planning new tasks, use pessimistic estimates since prior data isn't available.
- Practice pessimism strong enough so actual outcomes are as often better as worse than predictions.