The Big Story Post-election, digging into whether or not our economy will fall into recession
May 4, 2025
Dawn Desjardins, Chief Economist at Deloitte Canada, specializes in economic forecasting and analyzing trends. She discusses potential recession risks in Canada following recent elections and the impact of trade tensions. Dawn highlights how consumer anxiety and trade deficits are slowing down growth in critical sectors. She also explores the challenges faced by industries like steel and aluminum in an uncertain economy, emphasizing the importance of navigating interest rates amidst inflation concerns.
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Trade War Slows Canada's Economy
- The trade war uncertainty has led to loss of economic momentum in Canada, especially impacting export-oriented industries.
- Business and consumer confidence weaken, affecting investment, hiring, and spending decisions in the economy.
Uncertainty Hits Confidence Hard
- Uncertainty from tariffs severely dampens business and consumer confidence, causing economic growth to stall and possibly contract.
- Consumers worry about job security and financial health amid volatile financial markets and economic slowdown.
Tariff Anticipation Spurs Import Spike
- Companies front-load imports to beat tariff hikes, revealing anticipation of increased costs.
- This strategic behavior causes a record-breaking U.S. trade deficit and reflects widespread economic caution.