In this episode, we investigate the possibility of asset markets nearing a global refinancing air pocket. The discussion centers on key macroeconomic questions, including potential shifts in U.S. financing policy with Trump's Treasury Secretary nominee, the effects of a debt ceiling moratorium, and the Fed's ability to manage the dollar and bond market volatility in a resilient economy. The analysis integrates quantitative signals—from bearish Bitcoin crowding and an inflation-dominated risk-off environment to positional imbalances in equities—while recommending a portfolio strategy that emphasizes capital preservation through defensive assets and cautious allocations amid liquidity risks.
The Macro Minute with Darius Dale