Steve Chiavarone, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Federated Hermes, shares insights on underestimating economic growth and inflation trends. He emphasizes the potential impact of the upcoming Trump administration's policies. Lydia Boussour, Senior Economist at EY, discusses the expectation of a more business-friendly environment and analyzes macroeconomic trends, including inflation and government policies. Together, they navigate the complexities of the current economic landscape, focusing on market dynamics, labor issues, and projections for future growth.
Steve Chiavarone emphasizes that growth from new policies may exceed expectations while inflation concerns are currently overestimated.
Kelsey Berro highlights that although the labor market appears strong, the unemployment rate continues to show signs of creeping higher.
Deep dives
Infrastructure Investment and Risk Factors
The recent infrastructure legislation marks a significant shift in American infrastructure development, focusing on modernizing transportation, energy, and communication systems. By investing in companies associated with the GlobalX U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF, investors tap into a sector expected to reshape the future landscapes fundamentally. However, this investment is not without risks, including potential economic downturns and regulatory changes that could adversely affect infrastructure-related companies. Understanding these risks is crucial for investors considering participation in this evolving market.
Equity Market Trends and Economic Outlook
Current trends in the equity market suggest a rise predominantly in large tech companies, with mixed performances in indices like the S&P 500 and small-cap stocks. Analysts indicate that post-election economic growth has exceeded expectations, shifting capital flows towards the U.S., particularly amidst political instability in Europe. Despite concerns over a potential repeat of economic conditions similar to 2022, there are views that suggest a more robust outlook for U.S. equities, driven by advantageous economic policies and market corrections. A shift in investor sentiment could also result from anticipated monetary policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve.
Inflation, M&A Activity, and Business Sentiment
Anticipations regarding inflation rates are being closely monitored, especially with expected increases due to proposed tariffs and immigration policies. Such economic dynamics may exert pressure on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), expected to rise by ten percent in the coming year, as businesses navigate the post-election environment and adjust to a more favorable business climate. Increased activity in M&A could result from improving business sentiment, although caution is advised due to the balancing act required amidst regulatory and economic policy changes. Consequently, the interplay between inflation concerns and favorable business conditions will significantly shape economic forecasts for the next few years.
- Steve Chiavarone, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, Federated Hermes - Kelsey Berro, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management - Lydia Boussour, Senior Economist, EY
Steve Chiavarone of Federated Hermes says, "we are underestimating the growth that's going to come from the policies and overestimating the inflation," about the incoming Trump administration. Kelsey Berro of JPMorgan warns despite labor market resilience, "the unemployment rate is actually creeping higher." Lydia Boussour of EY is expecting a "more business-friendly environment" next year.