The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Will NVIDIA earnings and/or the July PCE Report disrupt or truncate our Paradigm C bull market?
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Aug 25, 2025 Explore the tension in the markets as NVIDIA's earnings and the July PCE report loom large. With bullish positions reaching a peak, the potential for volatility is high if AI hype wanes or inflation surprises. The discussion highlights the transformative effects of tailored investment guidance that alleviates stress and fosters better family dynamics. Amidst these challenges, the focus remains on risk management and the pursuit of compounding returns in an AI-driven landscape.
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Pivotal Catalysts This Week
- NVIDIA earnings and the July PCE are the week's pivotal catalysts for market direction.
- Durable adverse inflections in growth, inflation, policy, or liquidity would threaten the Paradigm C bull market.
July Core PCE Is A Fed Test
- July core PCE is forecast at 2.9% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.
- That reading will test the Fed's balance between prices and a fragile labor market.
Crowded Bullish Positioning
- Market positioning is now as crowded bullish as it was at February's all-time high on median indicators.
- Crowded positioning raises left-tail risk if AI enthusiasm or inflation data disappoints.