E662 | Damian Cristian & Guy Conway, Rule 30: Building the First Fully Systematic VC

Welcome back to the EUVC Podcast, your inside track on the people, models, and math reshaping European venture.

This week, Andreas talks with Damian Cristian and Guy Conway, co-founders of Rule 30 - an AI research lab building what they claim is the world’s first fully systematic venture strategy. We go deep on the difference between “data-driven” (hygiene) and decision-driven (engine), why labels matter, and how portfolio math crushes intuition.

They unpack founder-trajectory signals, graph-based network evolution, market topology (yes, biology-inspired stats), and a portfolio design targeting 3x+ minimum returns with 97.5% confidence. We also debate the “access myth,” party rounds, and why they won’t sell their alpha.

Whether you’re an LP testing managers, a GP rethinking reserves, or a founder curious how algorithms “see” you - this one’s for the nerds and the pragmatists.

Here’s what’s covered:

• 01:46 | What is “Quant VC” and how it differs from traditional venture

• 06:39 | Why pre-seed isn’t an access problem — it’s a triage problem

• 09:55 | Can AI really make investment decisions at pre-seed?

• 14:13 | Training the model on 15 years of startup data to find top-decile winners

• 20:55 | The “Outlier Trajectory” of founders — decoding team evolution through data

• 26:42 | Why Rule 30 calls itself an AI Research Lab, not a VC fund

• 35:36 | Portfolio construction math: the danger of the “middle” strategy

• 55:57 | Follow-ons vs upfront bets — why they avoid reserves entirely

• 61:40 | Access myth-busting — why 99 % of pre-seed deals are open to smart capital