Manuela Picq, a Professor of International Relations at Amherst College and a veteran observer of Latin American politics, dives into Ecuador's tumultuous political climate. She discusses the shocking rise in gang violence that has turned the nation into one of the deadliest in the region, linked to drug trafficking. The presidential race features incumbent Daniel Noboa, who has militarized the streets, versus Luisa Gonzalez, who advocates for social reform. Picq also addresses the implications of corruption and the challenges facing voters who seek credible leadership.
Ecuador has seen a drastic increase in violence driven by drug trafficking, leading to devastating impacts on youth and society.
The presidential race contrasts Daniel Noboa’s militarized tactics with Luisa Gonzalez’s focus on social reform, highlighting public discontent.
Deep dives
The Rise of Violence in Ecuador
Ecuador has experienced a dramatic surge in violence, transforming from one of the safest countries in South America to the most dangerous in just a few years. This rise is driven by the influx of drug trafficking gangs, including international cartels competing for territory, which has led to increasing homicides, kidnappings, and violent crimes. The societal impact is severe, with reports indicating that around 90,000 children have dropped out of school since 2022 due to gang violence, making the country particularly unfit for youth. As families struggle to protect their children from gang recruitment and brutality, the desperation and fear permeate across all social sectors, creating a spiraling cycle of hopelessness and violence that threatens future generations.
The Candidates and Their Contrasting Visions
The upcoming presidential race features incumbent President Daniel Noboa, who represents the oligarchy and has taken a tough, militarized approach to combat crime, alongside challenger Luisa Gonzalez, a leftist candidate who supports social investment and alliances with regional allies. Noboa's strongman tactics, such as increasing military authority and heavy-handed policing, have only exacerbated violence and unrest, evidenced by the highest homicide rates recorded under his watch. In contrast, Gonzalez aims to modernize the police, invest in education, and address societal inequalities, appealing to voters disillusioned with the current state of affairs. This election serves as a referendum on Noboa’s controversial rule, with Gonzalez gaining unprecedented support that suggests a significant public shift away from traditional leadership.
Political Assassinations and Instability
Ecuador's political landscape has been marred by violence as political candidates and officials are increasingly targeted, illustrating the dangerous interplay between politics and organized crime. The assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio highlights the rising trend of violence against those challenging corruption and criminal ties within government. Candidates now face election campaigns under the constant threat of violence, with many resorting to armed security for protection, whereas traditional electoral processes are overshadowed by fear and mistrust. As these violent episodes unfold, citizens must navigate a precarious path between choosing leadership and surviving in a climate of terror and insecurity.
Ecuador heads to the polls gripped by spiraling violence and political uncertainty. Once one of South America’s safest nations, it now has the highest homicide rate in the region. The presidential run-off pits Daniel Noboa, the incumbent who’s militarised the streets, against Luisa Gonzalez, a left-winger promising social reform. Both offer starkly different futures. Which will voters choose?
In this episode:
Manuela Picq (@lamanuelapicq), Professor of International Relations, Amherst College
Episode credits:
This episode was produced by Tamara Khandaker, Sonia Bhagat, and Ashish Malhotra, with Phillip Lanos, Spencer Cline, Khaled Soltan, Mariana Navarrete, Melanie Marich, Remas Alhawari, Kisaa Zehra, and our guest host, Natasha Del Toro. It was edited by Noor Wazwaz.
Our sound designer is Alex Roldan. Our video editors are Hisham Abu Salah and Mohannad Al-Melhem. Alexandra Locke is The Take’s executive producer. Ney Alvarez is Al Jazeera’s head of audio.
