Episode 213: Alison Smart and Spencer Glendon, Probable Futures
Jun 13, 2022
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Alison Smart and Spencer Glendon of Probable Futures discuss their climate journeys and the creation of their initiative. They emphasize the importance of understanding and preparing for climate change, visualizing its impact, and realizing the destabilization of our civilization. They highlight the universal applicability of their resource for climate change education and planning, the challenge of reconciling self-interest and the collective good, and framing the future as either a defensive catastrophe avoidance or an aspirational vision of abundance. They also discuss learning about the tools and building partnerships.
Probable Futures is an educational initiative that provides freely accessible digital platforms with data, maps, stories, and insights to help individuals, organizations, and governments worldwide comprehend the impacts of climate change.
Probable Futures aims to democratize access to climate data and models, training individuals from various backgrounds to understand and effectively use climate data, fostering climate data literacy and promoting its integration into different sectors and communities.
Probable Futures promotes climate awareness as a vital framework for addressing the challenges of climate change, encouraging individuals to prioritize climate considerations in decision-making and driving meaningful change at personal, professional, and societal levels.
Deep dives
Probable Futures: An Initiative for Climate Change Understanding and Action
Probable Futures is an educational initiative that aims to provide useful tools for visualizing and understanding climate change. It offers freely accessible digital platforms with data, maps, stories, and insights to help individuals, organizations, and governments worldwide comprehend the impacts of climate change. By bringing together leaders from various fields, including culture, technology, business, and design, in collaboration with scientists from the Woodwell Climate Research Center, Probable Futures works towards creating a global utility that facilitates informed decision-making and planning at all levels. The initiative emphasizes the need to move beyond simplistic representations of the future and embraces the idea that climate change will present a range of probable outcomes. By providing user-friendly interfaces and visualizations, Probable Futures helps bridge the gap between scientific research and everyday understanding, fostering climate awareness and inspiring action across diverse industries and communities.
Building Climate Data Literacy
As part of its mission, Probable Futures is democratizing access to climate data and models. Previously, this data was only accessible to a small subset of experts, but now it is being made available to a wider audience. The initiative aims to train individuals from various backgrounds to understand and effectively use climate data. By learning about the fundamentals of a stable climate, earth systems, and climate science models, users gain the skills necessary to interpret and utilize climate data. This training of trainers approach fosters climate data literacy and empowers individuals, whether they are students, professionals, or researchers, to integrate climate information into their respective domains. By expanding the comprehension and usage of climate data, Probable Futures strives to make climate knowledge more accessible and applicable across different sectors and communities.
Climate Awareness: A New Framework for Action
Probable Futures promotes climate awareness as a vital framework for addressing the challenges of climate change. It encourages individuals to pay attention to the ways in which a stable climate underpins everyday life, fostering mindfulness about the Earth's systems and their interactions with human constructs. By realizing the importance of a stable climate for planning and civilization, people can start making connections between climate change and their own lives and work. This heightened awareness leads to actions that prioritize climate considerations in decision-making, driving meaningful change at personal, professional, and societal levels. With a focus on seeding climate mindfulness, Probable Futures seeks to inspire a new paradigm where climate consciousness becomes inherent in decision-making processes and contributes to a sustainable future.
Shifting Culture and Embracing Change
Probable Futures recognizes that changing cultural norms and systems is essential for addressing climate change effectively. It aims to challenge the separation between work and climate considerations, urging individuals and organizations to integrate climate awareness into their decision-making processes. By reframing the perceived trade-offs between personal interests and the collective good, Probable Futures encourages a shift in mindset. The initiative emphasizes that making choices that align with climate goals can yield positive outcomes for individuals, communities, and the planet. By fostering an inclusive culture that embraces collective responsibility, Probable Futures envisions that people will recognize the need for transformative action and leverage their diverse expertise to drive positive change in every sector and community.
The Power of Incremental Change
The speaker discusses the importance of working with existing systems, such as capitalism and democracy, to bring about positive change. They believe that even big systems can be turned around by changing the rules and priorities. Regulatory change and industry groups can be catalysts for change, as businesses recognize the need to adapt in order to thrive. Collaboration, cooperation, and advocacy for good regulation are encouraged to address the urgency of climate change. The speaker emphasizes the importance of working within the existing institutions and harnessing what already exists.
Living in a Climate-Aware World
The speaker highlights the need to shift from anxiety to fear in addressing climate change. Fear prompts action, while anxiety leads to inaction. They discuss the importance of gaining a specific understanding of the problem and developing a tangible emotional response. The speaker argues that the future still holds potential for a wonderful and abundant world, but it requires a shift in mindset and a recognition of the physical world we live in. They advocate for climate awareness and moderation, emphasizing the importance of reducing the number of people who solely work on climate by incorporating climate awareness into various fields. They conclude by encouraging engagement with climate change and building climate literacy to shape our own futures.
Today's guests are Alison Smart, Executive Director, and Spencer Glendon, Founder, of Probable Futures.
Probable Futures is an unconventional initiative that brings together leaders across culture, business, technology, and design in collaboration with scientists at the renowned Woodwell Climate Research Center. They're committed to and guided by their shared set of core principles. Probable Futures offers frameworks, tools, and storytelling to help people understand, prepare for, and choose between the futures that the climate offers us. The online platform currently provides educational materials about the workings of Earth’s systems and climate models as well as local and global projections of heat, cold, and precipitation. All Probable Futures materials are free to anyone in the world.
Spencer has an interesting background in that he spent 18 years as macro analyst, partner, and director of investment research at Wellington Management, an investment management firm with more than a trillion in client assets. He also holds a BS in Industrial Engineering and a PhD in Economics. Prior to helping found Probable Futures, Alison was Vice President for Strategy & Advancement at the Woodwell Climate Research Center (Woodwell), a leading source of climate science that informs policy, decision making, and the urgent action needed to combat climate change.
We discuss the pair’s respective climate journeys, what motivated them to work in this space, and what led them to create Probable Futures. We also talk about how they measure success, what stakeholders they’re serving, and the nature of the climate problem in general, as well as what’s holding us back.
Enjoy the show!
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