Making Markets
Sam Rines: Making Sense of the Economy - [Making Markets, EP.1]
Oct 27, 2023
In this episode, Samuel Rines, economist and author, discusses the current economic cycle, the concept of 'excuseflation', and the state of the consumer. They also explore the impact of leisure vacation travel on the economy and the effects of global geopolitical events on investment portfolios. This wide-ranging discussion offers insights into the economy and its various sectors.
42:32
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Quick takeaways
- The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is likely to depend on the current economic cycle, with a possible rate hike or data-dependent decision, and potential rate cuts in 2024 if disinflation persists.
- Businesses have shifted towards 'price over volume' strategy post-COVID, raising prices to maintain profit margins amidst supply chain disruptions, leading to potential long-term effects on profit margins and business models.
Deep dives
The Fed's Plan Going Forward
The podcast explores the Federal Reserve's intentions and plans for monetary policy based on the current economic cycle. It is predicted that the Fed will either hike rates once more this year or wait for data to determine their next move. Looking ahead to 2024, the Fed may consider cutting rates to maintain a normal level of real restrictiveness if disinflation continues. The podcast emphasizes the importance of understanding the Fed's approach and potential missteps as we move into the latter part of the tightening and inflation cycle.
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