All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Scott Bessent: Fixing the Fed, Tariffs for National Security, Solving Affordability in 2026

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Dec 22, 2025
Scott Bessent, former hedge fund manager and current U.S. Treasury Secretary, dives into the pressing issues facing the economy. He discusses the unexpected effectiveness of tariffs for national security and how they can reshape domestic production. Bessent critiques the Federal Reserve's history and its role in creating economic inequality, while offering insights on fiscal deficits and inflation. He emphasizes the importance of supporting community banks to enhance credit access and outlines strategic investments to reshore critical industries.
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INSIGHT

Deficit Moving Toward A 3% Target

  • The deficit fell modestly in 2025 and Treasury expects further fiscal contraction in 2026 as nominal growth approaches 6%.
  • Scott Bessent aims to get the deficit below 3% of GDP by the time President Trump leaves office to stabilize and start paying down debt.
INSIGHT

Tariffs Reframed As Strategic, Not Merely Political

  • Bessent argues many dismissed tariffs due to partisan bias and a failure of imagination about China's long-term trajectory.
  • He cites studies (e.g., San Francisco Fed) suggesting tariffs can be disinflationary, not inflationary.
ADVICE

Use Tariffs As A Transition Tool

  • Use tariffs to rebalance trade, reshore manufacturing, and strengthen payroll tax receipts rather than treat tariffs only as permanent revenue.
  • Expect tariff income to fall as domestic production rises and tax receipts increase from reshoring.
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