'They're no Zionists': How Syria's rebels toppled Assad and what it means for Israel
Dec 9, 2024
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Amos Harel, Haaretz's senior military analyst, and Hassan Hassan, a Syrian-born journalist and author, dive into the complex aftermath of the Assad regime's collapse. They discuss how the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, with roots in extremist ideologies, may adopt a pragmatic approach towards Israel similar to that of Assad. Harel expresses skepticism about HTS's supposed moderation, while Hassan highlights potential stability implications for Israel. The conversation sheds light on shifting power dynamics and the cautious optimism among Syrians yearning for change.
The fall of Assad's regime has shifted the power dynamics in the Middle East, raising concerns for Israeli intelligence and stability.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's pragmatic approach towards governance may lead to a quieter border with Israel, despite its extremist roots.
Deep dives
Factors Behind the Fall of Assad's Regime
The rapid fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria can be attributed to a combination of internal and external factors. Domestically, Assad’s long-standing, corrupt rule faced growing discontent amid a civil war that had wearied the populace and weakened the regime's control. Externally, the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon shifted the balance, revealing vulnerabilities in the Shiite alliance, which the Sunni rebels seized as an opportunity to advance. The rebels quickly capitalized on this moment of weakness, launching their campaign against Assad's control, with events unfolding in just over a week.
Intelligence Community's Oversight
There was a significant surprise among intelligence communities regarding the sudden change in Syria, particularly for Israel, the U.S., and their allies. The intelligence failures were highlighted, drawing parallels to past oversights where rapid shifts in power dynamics occurred without early detection. The current events underscore a broader trend where intelligence agencies often struggle to anticipate and respond to the swift changes in conflict zones. This situation demands an internal investigation to evaluate missed opportunities for better foresight, reflecting on the challenges of analyzing evolving military and political landscapes.
Regional Implications of Assad's Collapse
The collapse of Assad has sparked concerns about reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East, particularly in relation to Iranian influence. Observers note that while the defeat of the Iranian axis is seen as a positive development for Israel, the potential reaction from Iran's leadership could provoke further tensions. Speculation exists around whether Iran might see this setback as a catalyst to accelerate its nuclear ambitions in response to perceived threats. The geopolitical landscape remains fluid, and the long-term implications of Assad's fall are yet to unfold, warranting close attention from regional actors.
Future of Governance in Syria
As rebel factions take control in Syria, the focus shifts to how they will govern the fragmented country previously under Assad's rule. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an organization formerly linked to al-Qaeda, is emerging as a significant player but exhibits a more pragmatic, localized approach compared to past iterations. HTS leaders suggest they might prioritize stability over aggressive jihadist objectives, hinting at a potential for governance that avoids further alienation of the populace. This pragmatic stance could indicate a period of relative calm, particularly along Israel's borders, as HTS may seek to avoid conflict while consolidating their power.
The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has left Israel concerned about the future of what has been its quietest border in an era of continual instability and war, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that drove Assad out and has roots in Al-Qaeda and ISIS, takes charge.
"I suspect they will probably send signals to Israel directly or indirectly, that they're not interested in igniting anything there," Haaretz Podcast guest Hassan Hassan, editor-in-chief of New Lines Magazine, said.
Hassan, a Syrian-born journalist and author who has studied Islamist groups, believes that their posture towards Israel would be "cut from the same cloth" as Assad's, who "never really waged war against Israel since 1973."
Haaretz senior military analyst Amos Harel, also on the podcast, said that Israeli officials are wary of the group and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. According to Harel, the Syrian rebel leader currently "at least pretends to to have become more of a moderate. He doesn't talk like an extreme jihadist anymore. But don't think I'm buying into this, and neither are the Israeli intelligence community and the Israeli leadership."