Episode #187 - Larry Johnson and What Comes After Kursk
Aug 22, 2024
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Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst and commentator, shares insights on the recent military incursions in Ukraine and their broader implications for global geopolitics. He draws historical parallels to past conflicts, emphasizing the strategic dynamics at play. The discussion tackles the ineffectiveness of economic sanctions, the deepening Russia-China alliance, and the complexities of U.S. foreign policy. Johnson also critiques the media narratives surrounding these events, highlighting the need for informed discourse in our chaotic world.
The risky Ukrainian strategies akin to Gettysburg resulted in failures that could escalate the conflict into total war.
Western involvement and military support in Ukraine have dangerously complicated the situation, prompting harsher Russian retaliatory measures.
Economic sanctions have paradoxically united Russia and China, undermining Western political goals and reshaping global alliances amidst rising tensions.
Deep dives
Ukrainian Strategy and Implications
The situation in Ukraine is likened to the Battle of Gettysburg, with the Ukrainians taking risky strategic actions without clear purpose. Initial theories suggest they attacked Kursk to divert Russian forces from Donetsk, but this plan ultimately failed, leading to a retreat of Ukrainian units instead. Another notion was that they aimed to capture a nuclear power plant to coerce Russia into negotiations, a mission that also did not materialize. These failures have led the conflict to potentially escalate from a special military operation to a more extensive war, as Russia may respond with increased aggression, aiming to significantly damage Ukraine.
The Impact of Western Support on the War's Nature
The engagement of foreign mercenaries and Western support in Ukraine has further complicated the situation, pushing the conflict toward total war. The podcast emphasizes how these foreign involvements echo World War II dynamics, potentially altering Russia's calculations and justifying harsher retaliatory measures against the Ukrainian forces. The presence of foreign equipment, such as German and British tanks, has been flagged as a catalyst for a more aggressive Russian stance. This situation indicates a shift in war strategy, where the Russians might abandon the hope of maintaining Ukraine's infrastructure for future peace.
Logistical Challenges and Narrative Manipulation
Questions arise regarding the alleged disruption to Russian military logistics in Ukraine, particularly concerning rail systems critical for supplies. Despite reports about these logistical issues, there seems to be a lack of independent verification from credible sources, leading to skepticism about their accuracy. Analysts express concern about Western media narratives potentially being engineered to shift public discourse after the Ukrainian actions. The absence of significant discussion around logistics problems in Russian media suggests the possibility that these stories might serve as propaganda rather than reflecting real challenges faced by Russian forces.
Economic Sanctions and Global Power Shifts
The podcast discusses the dynamics of economic sanctions implemented by the West and their unintended consequences, particularly in reinforcing the unity between Russia and China. There is skepticism regarding the effectiveness of sanctions as a tool for achieving political change, as historical evidence does not support their success in prompting regime changes. Instead, such strategies have driven previously divided nations closer together under geopolitical pressure. This evolving landscape challenges the notion of Western superiority and reflects broader shifts in global alliances amid a crumbling international system.
Potential Consequences of Escalation
The escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, highlight the risks of miscalculation and the potential for broader conflict. With military exercises and arms agreements growing between Iran and Russia, the likelihood of a coordinated response to perceived threats increases. Analysts propose that should hostilities erupt, they could involve a multifaceted retaliation from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, complicating the conflict further. Given the current geopolitical climate, the absence of a viable diplomatic off-ramp presents a significant risk to global stability in the near future.
Former CIA Analyst and commentator Larry Johnson joins me to discuss what the broader implications of Ukraine's incursion into Russia near Kursk and how that impacts the global gameboard.