In this intense discussion, freelance reporter Thomas van Linge shares his frontline insights into the dramatic fall of Aleppo. He explores the unexpected resurgence of rebel forces and how social media is reshaping the conflict narrative. Van Linge dives into the Assad regime's connections to the Captagon drug trade, revealing its impact on Syria's economy. He also discusses Turkey's strategic maneuvers amidst shifting alliances and the ongoing refugee crisis, painting a complex picture of the region's dynamics.
The fall of Aleppo to Syrian rebels signifies a major shift in the civil war, raising questions about the Assad regime's future.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's transformation from an Al-Qaeda linked group to a politically engaged entity highlights the evolving dynamics of the conflict.
Deep dives
Rebels Resurge in Aleppo
The recent advance of Syrian rebels into Aleppo marks a historic turning point in the ongoing civil war, effectively signaling the resurgence of opposition forces after years of stalemate. After the Assad regime had regained control in a brutal campaign back in 2016, many analysts believed that such a recovery by the rebels was unlikely. However, without much resistance from government troops, rebel groups have successfully entered the city, suggesting a significant shift in power dynamics. This shift raises critical questions about the future of the Assad regime and the broader implications for the conflict in Syria.
The Evolution of HTS
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main group behind the recent rebel advance, has undergone significant transformation since its origins linked to Al-Qaeda, adopting a more regional political role. Under the leadership of Jolani, HTS has sought to distance itself from extremist perceptions and has engaged in public relations efforts to appear more moderate while still maintaining its Islamic character. This evolution included outreach to various religious and ethnic groups, showing a tactical shift that emphasizes governance and local stability rather than solely militant ideology. The group's adaptability reflects a calculated approach to garner support amid changing conflict landscapes.
Shifts in Assad's Support
The changing tide in Aleppo can also be attributed to shifts in the support for the Assad regime, particularly the diminished roles of his key allies, including Russia and Hezbollah. As Russia's focus has largely shifted to its conflict in Ukraine, its resources and attention in Syria have waned, leaving Assad more isolated than before. This has coincided with the regime's over-reliance on drug production, particularly Captagon, to finance military efforts amid international sanctions, which has weakened its ability to maintain a cohesive military force. Consequently, the rebels, having steadily fortified and organized their ranks, are seizing the opportunity during this critical juncture.
Geopolitical Implications
The implications of the recent rebel offensive extend beyond local dynamics, touching on broader regional geopolitics, particularly Turkey's interests in Syria. Turkey's historical ties to the Syrian opposition, along with its current refugee issues, present a complex backdrop as Erdogan seeks to manage both domestic and foreign policy challenges. With the potential for a shifting balance of power that could favor the rebels, Turkey might be incentivized to increase its engagement and influence in the region. In this context, the situation remains fluid, with various actors recalibrating their strategies in response to the ongoing developments in Aleppo.
The extraordinary turn of events in Syria in recent days saw the city of Aleppo, once Syria's largest and a key part of the earlier story of Syria's revolution, fall to Syria's rebels, with the soldiers of the Assad regime in chaotic retreat. I spoke to Thomas van Linge, one of the few journalist who has been covering the story, about what has happened and the reasons why.